Why the Leafs should look to trade for Jeff Petry

Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

It's been no secret that the Leafs’ Achilles heel over the past two seasons has been their back end. Heck, it's all everyone seems to be talking about. 

Heading into the 2018-19 season, the Leafs defensive unit is projected to look something like this:

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Carrick
Extra: Holl, Ozhiganov

While there are some nice pieces included in this group, it can certainly be better. Especially when you consider the team as a whole gave up the third most shots against in the NHL and Frederik Andersen had to face the most shots and saves of any goalie last season.

Sure, perhaps the upgrade could come from within the Leafs system with guys like Holl and Ozhiganov vying for a spot, as mentioned earlier. There's also the possibility of signing a defenseman who has yet to land a contract in free agency (Cody Franson reunion?). 

Perhaps, instead, it could be as easy as trading for one who is a proven commodity. I think this third option is what the Leafs should pursue to make an upgrade to their back end and there's a good player that could help them out on their long-time rivals in Jeff Petry.

Stats

Jeff Petry
Defense
Born Dec 9 1987  -- Ann Arbor, MI 
Height 6.03 -- Weight 208 -- Shoots R


Selected by Edmonton Oilers round 2 #45 overall 2006 NHL Entry Draft

                                            --- Regular Season ---  ---- Playoffs ----
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  GP   G   A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005-06  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   48    1   14   15   68  11   2   5   7   8
2006-07  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   55   18   27   45   71   8   0   6   6  10
2007-08  Michigan State University   CCHA   42    3   21   24   28
2008-09  Michigan State University   CCHA   38    2   12   14   32
2009-10  Michigan State University   CCHA   38    4   25   29   26
2009-10  Springfield Falcons         AHL     8    0    3    3    2  --  --  --  --  --
2010-11  Oklahoma City Barons        AHL    41    7   17   24   18   6   0   1   1   4
2010-11  Edmonton Oilers             NHL    35    1    4    5   10  --  --  --  --  --
2011-12  Edmonton Oilers             NHL    73    2   23   25   26  --  --  --  --  --
2011-12  Oklahoma City Barons        AHL     2    0    1    1    2  --  --  --  --  --
2012-13  Edmonton Oilers             NHL    48    3    9   12   29  --  --  --  --  --
2013-14  Edmonton Oilers             NHL    80    7   10   17   42  --  --  --  --  --
2014-15  Edmonton Oilers             NHL    59    4   11   15   32  --  --  --  --  --
2014-15  Montreal Canadiens          NHL    19    3    4    7   10  12   2   1   3   4
2015-16  Montreal Canadiens          NHL    51    5   11   16   16  --  --  --  --  --
2016-17  Montreal Canadiens          NHL    80    8   20   28   22   6   1   0   1   2
2017-18  Montreal Canadiens          NHL    82   12   30   42   28  --  --  --  --  --
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         NHL Totals                        527   45  122  167  215  18   3   1   4   6










Highlights































Why the Leafs should get him











Let's get the obvious reasons out of the way. He is a right-shooting defenseman who is blessed with good size (6'3'' and 208 lbs), has been a fairly productive player throughout his career, is in his prime, and would instantly improve the Leafs top-4 for this coming season.















This past season saw Petry post the best season of his NHL career to this point, registering 12 goals 30 assists and 42 points on a struggling Canadiens team that was riddled with injuries to their defense. With the team's number one guy in Shea Weber missing significant time on IR, Petry stepped up in a big way to help his team.















Additionally, Petry is a surprisingly good possession player and has been since arriving in Montreal. This past season alone saw him post a Corsi-for% of 52.0. When compared to Zaitzev, he is a stronger analytical player, has a better Goals Above Replacement, and has overall been a greater offensive producer. This shows that Petry is a solid player stuck on a team unlikely to make the playoffs.















When it comes to his contract, he is under control for the next three seasons including this upcoming one at $5.5M AAV, which is a little high, but not ludicrously so. However, it is worth noting that he does have a modified no-movement clause in which he can reject a trade to 15 teams. It's not known who they are, but if the Leafs end up not being one of them, it works to their advantage.















Finally, Petry has had plenty of playoff experience in his career though all of it has come during his time in Montreal. He has appeared in 18 games across two seasons and registered 4 points in total. Also, he has been in a large market the past three years during the season and the playoffs so he would have no problems adjusting to life in Toronto.

















Simply put, he's an attractive piece that could help the Leafs out. At only 30 years of age, he still has plenty more seasons of productive hockey left in him, which works well with the Buds in win-now mode. Being solid in his own end while also being confident in jumping in on the attack, he's exactly what the team could use to shore up the top-4 defense.











The cost











To TOR: Petry











To MTL: Zaitsev, Leafs 2021 2nd, Nielsen










This trade return is assuming that Zaitsev doesn't quite match the production he had during his rookie season. Because his contract is a decently-signed deal at $4.5 million for at least 6 years, the Leafs will need to send salary the other way to both keep them under the cap and to make it more fair for Montreal.







If Zaitsev improves his play and the Leafs do decide to go after Petry, then it's possible that a one for one deal would be enough to get the deal done. However, it's hard to envision what his 2018-19 season will be so we'll remain realistic. 







The 2nd round pick will likely be in the lower end of the round (between 51-61) so the value isn't crazy high, though it's something the team could do. Also, since it's so far down the road, it gives the Leafs ample time to continue to draft players that will help the team out because by 2021, they should fully be in win-now mode for a better part of the decade.







Finally, Nielsen is included to sweeten the deal a touch and give back a prospect who could benefit from increased playing time. It's no secret that the Marlies are blessed with one of the deepest defensive units in the AHL and is expected to get more reinforcements. This is highlighted by the fact in the 2018 playoffs, Nielson only appeared in 8 games though one of them was Game 7 of the Calder Cup Finals.







Granted, Nielson still has potential to be a useful player, though he has a lot of work to do. If he doesn't fit into the Leafs’ long-term plans, it makes sense to send him to a team that has room for him in their plans.







In short, Petry is a player the Leafs should be keeping their eyes on this coming season as he has value that could help improve the team’s top 4 defensive unit. His underlying stats show his usefulness, he's still in his prime and coming off a career year, and plays well at both ends of the rink.







Based on the potential trade return I mentioned above, it may not cost too much to bring him into the fold. At the very least, he is someone the Leafs need to add on their shopping list.













All stats for this article are from Hockey-Reference.com.



You can follow Michael Mazzei on Twitter @MichaelMazzei3.











































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