How should the Leafs sort out their power-play and penalty kill units?

Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images

With the dog days of both the offseason and summer in full swing, it's easy to just sit around and wait for the new season to start. Alternatively, there's the option of contemplating how the Leafs should sort out their lines come October.

I decided to go with the latter option, but more specifically, to focus on the Buds’ special team units.

As of August 10, we have a clear idea as to how the lines will shake up. Mike Babcock said on the day John Tavares signed with the Leafs that he would be on a line with Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman, while Auston Matthews will play with William Nylander and Patrick Marleau. Here's how the rest of the starting lines will probably look like according to TSN.

Not included: Tyler Ennis and Josh Jooris

What isn't really known at this point, however, is what Babcock and the Leafs have planned for both the power play and penalty killing squads for 2018-19. Today, I decided to take an educated guess based on who is most likely to make the team out of training camp.

Power-play #1

Marleau-Tavares-Matthews

Marner-Rielly

Just looking at that line on paper should strike fear into any opposing team. Having the Leafs three most deadly offensive weapons along with their top defenseman and a veteran presence is too good to pass up and could work in practice.

Having Matthews and Tavares play together has a lot of potential for offensive creativity going both ways as the two have proven to effectively play the role of both set-up man and finisher.  Since both will likely at times be the focal point of the opposition, this creates a potential for one of the two to be left alone and become a greater threat to get a quality scoring chance.

An added bonus is all three forwards have had experience and success at taking draws this past season. Marleau was 52.2% successful, Tavares was 52.9% successful, and Matthews was 54.5% successful. Having that versatility in being able to switch among the three given the opposing match-up is always helpful on the power play. 

The back-end of this unit will be the driving force to the success of this combination. Both Marner and Rielly were two key reasons why the Leafs had the 2nd best power play a year ago. The two combined for 43 power-play assists in 2018, which accounts for roughly 77% of the Leafs’ total power-play goals scored. Having them feeding the puck to the aforementioned forwards will be critical to their success rate on the power play.

Simply put, this unit could do wonders when they’re on the ice and would look similar to how the Pittsburgh Penguins run their top power-play squad.  I am not one to get too ahead of myself, but all I can say is good luck to whoever has to defend this.

Power-play #2

Leivo/Ennis-Kadri-Kapanen

Nylander-Gardiner

The loss of Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk definitely hurts the Leafs in terms of running two deadly power-play squads, but this proposed line could still do some damage.

Kadri running this unit makes sense since he was one of the team’s top goal scorers on the man-advantage with 12 goals last year. The fact he plays centre helps and while he will likely shoot more often than pass, it should work out just fine.

On the surface, Kapanen seems like an odd choice until you look at his production in the AHL. Dating back to 2015-16, he has scored 18 power play goals in that span, which is impressive when you consider he has bounced between the Leafs and Marlies in those three years. Depending on who makes the roster, the third option can be one of either Leivo or Ennis, who should each fit in well given both their solid offensive instinct.

Nylander being on the back end shouldn't be an area of concern as he's spent time the past two seasons working the point. What makes this a good fit is he can both set up a pass and also jump in to fire a shot.

Finally, Gardiner has enjoyed success in quarterbacking a power-play unit and would be crucial in running this unit effectively. He's good at controlling the puck and entering the zone, while also providing that shot which presents an opportunity for the forward to tip it in.

While on paper this unit isn't as strong as the first, this can still be a successful unit with guys that can produce on the man-advantage. At the very least, it can work in giving the top guys a break when needed while still maintaining momentum in the offensive zone. 

Penalty-play #1

Hyman-Kapanen

Hainsey-Zaitsev

The loss of Leo Komarov mostly hurts when it comes to running the penalty kill, but this current iteration of the first unit should be able to get the job done. 

Hyman has gained more experience this past season taking faceoffs and showed improvement (37.9% in 2017 to 42.9% in 2018). He will likely need to be called upon more frequently now to do this, so if more progress is made it would help.

Having Hyman and Kapanen play together is a good match as the two have experience killing penalties and have enjoyed success because of it. The added bonus is that both are threats to score short-handed, especially Kapanen who is gifted with blazing speed. If all else, being able to grind out the other team while having a legitimate chance to score while a man short is all you could ask for in penalty killing forwards.

Hainsey and Zaitsev will have their work cut out for them once again as the two will be leaned on heavily to kill penalties. Babcock clearly trusts Hainsey a lot to be on the ice with a man short, so much so that Hainsey ended up with the highest PK TOI% at roughly 84% (!). For the sake of his long-term effectiveness as the season wears on, let's hope his minutes decrease.

This unit will surely have their work cut out for them, but they have what it takes to make Frederik Andersen's life a little easier should the Leafs need to kill a penalty.

Penalty-play #2

Tavares-Johnsson/Brown

Dermott-Rielly

While this unit looks a lot stronger on paper than the first one, bear in mind it's done to keep Tavares and Rielly's minutes from getting too extreme. Still, there's a lot to like here.

Contrary to popular belief, Tavares is effective at killing penalties. Over the past two seasons with the Islanders, he has been the team’s best forward in limiting shots against when down a man, which is impressive considering how bad their penalty kill was. He has also found success in scoring short-handed tallies, getting 3 over that same two-year stretch. This makes for an obvious fit for the penalty kill.

Johnsson and Brown have each had their share of experience playing short-handed minutes at various points last season and the two will be called upon again to do the same. Who slots in depends on how Babcock does the match-ups, although whoever steps in will be up to the task and work well with Tavares.

Dermott was given penalty killing minutes throughout his stint with the team, including some appearances in the playoffs. His mobility and defensive awareness will be of benefit to this unit. The same goes for Rielly, who also has plenty of experience dating back to 2015. Being the Leafs top defender also means more increased responsibility on the ice and with his prime years on the horizon, it's not a stretch to say he's ready for it.

This unit could be the X-factor for making the PK a success. With the overall team success rate at 11th in the league last season (81.4%), this line doing well will no doubt help the Leafs overall percentage go up in 2018-19.

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All stats for this article are from Hockey-Reference.com.

You can follow Michael Mazzei on Twitter @MichaelMazzei3.